Canadian Federal EV Policy – A Proposal

The Government of Canada is working on a new Canadian Zero-Emission Vehicle Strategy to be published this year.  We have been wondering if this might answer some of the issues that surround the slow uptake of EVs and PHEVs in Canada.  In this search we found the “Canada’s ZEV Policy Handbook”  This was a really interesting read and but, and this is a a big but, it promotes perhaps the slowest possible transition away from fossil fueled cars to ZEVs.  Based on the idea that we should have an ZEV market share of 30% by 2030 and 40% by 2040, by which time India,  China, much of Europe and several other jurisdictions will be at 100% market share, by virtue of banning fossil fueled vehicles.  Cities across the world are considering banning all fossil fueled vehicles as soon as 2030.

We hope this lack of ambition will not be reflected in the new Strategy. Slow progress will ensure that Canada becomes a dumping ground for fossil fuel vehicles as the rest of the world moves into an electrified future.  This will lead to damage to the environment, our pocketbooks and to the auto industry.

Canada is in 20th place for ZEV sales, with less the 1% market share.  If we take a look a the electricity grid in the the same group of 20 countries, Canada has the 6th cleanest, with less than 20% of our electricity coming from GHG producing sources.

Data from EV-Volumes.com (1H 2017)

To put it another way, an EV in Canada is a far more effective way of reducing GHG emissions than an EV in most other countries. It is to our shame that we are not pulling on this very large climate change lever as hard as we possibly can.

It is worth taking a look at the countries that are doing well.  Norway, Iceland and Sweden share much of our climate and Norway and Sweden also have a similar  population density to Southern Canada.

So climate and population density are not valid excuses, so why are we where we are?

We think a small part of the reason is that Canada is a very conservative country, change happens slowly and we tend to look south for our cues rather than looking to the leaders in an area for ideas. That said, we think the larger part of this slow progress is due to the simple fact that the fossil fuel and automobile sectors will lose out as we transition from fossil to electric vehicles.

In the end state we will have vehicles that cost a lot less than the current fossil-powered ones.  As battery costs fall, the simplicity of EVs will take over and manufacturing costs will be less than those of fossil vehicles in the next couple of years.  Maintenance costs for EVs are much lower than fossil cars due to very few moving parts.

Car manufacturers are faced with consumers paying less per vehicle, Dealers will be doing less warranty work, oil companies will be selling far less gas and diesel.

Whilst powerful lobbies lose, society wins in this equation: less GHG emissions, less pollution, less particulates and less noise.  Individuals win: lower costs of purchasing, far lower operating costs.  The power companies win: load on the grid is spread and evened out making management easier, sales are higher, opportunities arise to gain a big advantage from vehicle to grid, to allow EVs to supply power during sudden peaks in demand.

Politics is about the art of the possible and we are sure that car manufacturers and oil companies are lobbying hard to ensure that Canada is the last country to move away from the status quo.

So what might be possible, even in a climate where the government is being told it is too hard a change to make?

Graphic from Pod Point via Fully Charged

This is what is possible for the UK market. Click on the graphic to see a great discussion. We can shift this 2-3 years to the right for a view of what we can do in Canada.

Targets

Given that Norway will be above 50% market share for EVs and PHEVs in 2018 we think it is important that Canada set a strong target. 30% by 2030 is not going to address our Paris commitments and will result in consumer demand being ahead of supply and infrastructure.

Proposal: Target 50% ZEV market share by 2028

PHEV market share would be above and beyond the 50% level.

A 50% market share by 2028 will allow Canada to achieve close to 100% electrification by 2050 whilst providing time for infrastructure build out and industry to adapt.

Supply

Currently it is not possible to go to a car dealer, test drive an EV and then pick up a new EV a few days later.  Waiting lists for EVs are long, 6-12 months depending on the manufacturer.  Current Provincial measures have been enough to generate far more sales than the car companies are willing to deal with.  Supply management is key to ensuring the availability of EVs from all companies across all vehicle types.

Today there are EVs and PHEVs in most categories, but few choices within a category, providing almost no choice for consumers.

Quebec has introduced a ZEV mandate to try to ensure that supply will be available for the future.  Quebec has joined Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Vermont in adopting California’s Air Resource Board (CARB) ZEV Mandate.  The CARB mandate is a points system, you get a maximum of 1.3 points for a PHEV and a maximum of 4 points for a pure EV depending on range.  For example a Chevy Volt PHEV gets 0.83 points while our e-Golf would get 1.75 points.  The CARB requirements are not very ambitious, aiming for about 8% market share in 2020.  To meet the 50% goal by 2028 it might be necessary to go beyond CARB’s requirement in 2025 and beyond by reducing the points for PHEVs and increasing the points requirement to get closer to the change required to meet 50% market share.

Proposal:  Adopt CARB ZEV Mandate with enhanced measures from 2025

Additional measures may be required, but these should be considered in concert with provincial programs.

 

Demand

Quebec, Ontario and BC have direct subsidies that have been effective in creating demand but, at least in Ontario created a lot of work and delays in processing individual claims.  Any measures aimed at large scale adoption of EVs have to be simpler to implement.

Ontario has proposed removing the provincial portion of HST on all EVs. This mirrors the key measure used so successfully in Norway.  With HST at 13% in Ontario compared with 25% in Norway, this lever is not very long, especially if it is limited to the provincial portion.  Removing the federal GST portion of 5%, nationwide, would send a strong signal to consumers.  This would remove about $2000 from the cost of the average car.

If we are aiming for 50% market share this would create a serious hole in the budget, so we propose increasing the GST portion as the market share rises. GST should increase by 1% each time EVs achieve another 10% market share  By the time the 50% target is reached, GST would be restored to the normal level and would hold at that level.  PHEVs would not be eligible for the GST reduction.

An important principle for climate change is polluter pays.  This is a hard sell for politicians but there is a case to be made for increasing taxes on fossil powered vehicles.  We propose that GST on new and used fossil powered vehicles be increased by 0.25% per year until the rate reaches 8%.  Each increase will add about $90 t0 the cost of an average car.  Combined with the GST relief on pure EVs, this would generate about a $1B per year over time.  This revenue should be used to pay for transitional costs such as charging infrastructure, electric buses and garbage trucks etc.  PHEVs would maintain the 5% rate.

Proposal:  Reduce GST to 0% on pure EVs, reinstating the 5% rate in stages as market share increases.  Increase the GST on fossil powered vehicles by 0.25% per year until the rate reaches 8%.  Plug-in Hybid EVs should continue to be taxed at 5%.

Canada’s gas and diesel is far cheaper that the G7 average (73% of the average in 2012)  Federal excise tax on gas has been 10c/l since 1995 and 4c/l on diesel since 1987.  Businesses do not pay GST, it is always passed on to the consumer.  Excise tax is paid by all, not just individuals. Increasing excise tax on fuels sends a clear signal to the larger GHG emitters.  The excise tax should be raised gradually to give businesses time to move away from fossil fuel.  Again this increase in tax should be used to fund electrification.

Proposal: Increase excise tax on gas by 1c/l per year, increase excise tax on diesel by 2c/l per year.  This increase should not stop until all 2050 climate change goals are achieved.

 

Auto Industry Support

Canada spends a lot of money supporting the auto industry.  Canada’s auto industry is critical to the economy of Canada and Ontario.  Local production and export of vehicles comes close to balancing imports.  Canada and Ontario subsidise key projects for all 5 manufacturers.  In 2017 Ontario and Canada each invested $100M in an engine plant for Ford  This was an investment in the past, and moving forward we need to be clear that we will only provide support for the future.  In 2017 over $600M was promised to support the auto industry and not a penny went to moving the industry away from fossil fuels.  Under the proposals here, Canada’s electrification rate will lead the US, providing opportunities for Canadian factories to benefit as the US catches up.

Proposal:  Any federal auto subsidies should be to support the move away from fossil fuels.

Messaging

Consumers lack information about the advantages of EVs and the real costs of owning a fossil fuel vehicle.  To reach the 50% goal, consumers need to be informed and educated.   We can start by forcing manufacturers to compare the emissions and costs of running a fossil powered vehicle with an EV and PHEV in the same class.  This should be on the window sticker and in the brochures. This would provide a direct message to the consumer that a fossil powered vehicle is going to cost $2000 more per year to run and emit 4-5 tonnes of GHG per year.

The current EnerGuide Label for Canada, how different would this be if EVs were included on the scale.

When politicians talk about climate change the language used is often weak and shows a lack of real leadership.  We need to lead the public with clear messaging.  We need to look at driving a fossil powered vehicle in the future much as we do smoking in public. There will be a time when driving a fossil car will be socially unacceptable.

Over time, governments moved from supporting tobacco companies to telling the public that they should consider giving up smoking.  This moved to clearer “Smoking Kills” messages and eventually to government suing tobacco companies for the health costs of smoking.  Today, people still smoke, but how many in a particular country depends largely on  government action.

The transition from fossil fueled vehicles to EVs will mirror this process, this will require that politicians be both honest and knowledgeable about climate change and the impact of not doing a lot more than we are planning today.

We hope that Ministers Garneau, McKenna and Prime Minister Trudeau understand that we have to move forward with a concerted effort to educate, advise and support consumers in making the right choices.

Action

If you have found this post interesting, can you support this plan by emailing  your MP and Minister Garneau, our minister of Transport?

Click here for a starting point for your email,  you can find your MP’s email address here. The email includes a BCC to our address so we can see your response. Add your MP to the CC and write your own thought on the subject.  Our experience is that Minister Garneau’s staff read the emails and respond, you can make a real difference to the conversation.

The City of Kingston – Doing Electrification Right

In October the City of Kingston approved a new Kingston Electric Vehicle Strategy.  This document lays out a series of actions Kingston will take to reduce the council’s own transportation related green house gas (GHG) emissions and how they will help citizens and visitors do the same.

We have an interest how Kingston does this besides as a good example for the City of Ottawa to follow. We lived in Kingston for several months in 2015 and 2016 preparing for our trip south on Kinship and we have a son studying at Queens so we visit several times a year.

The strategy addresses three “Target Areas”, let’s take a look:

Target Area 1 – Electrification of Municipal Fleet

Kingston is going to start with their fleet of cars and light commercial vehicles.  This a natural outcome of the current pricing and incentives available.  As older vehicles in this class come up for replacement, they will be replaced with EVs and Level 2 chargers will be installed. Later transit buses and other vehicle will come into play as options become available.  The City of Kingston is a member of the Canadian Urban Transit Research & Innovation Consortium (CUTRIC)  A consortium exploring options for electric buses in Canada, starting with a pilot project in York Region I suspect that Kingston will find that buses are available today that can meet their requirements.

Target Area 2 – Support Community Adoption and Use of EVs

Kingston has only a handful of charging stations today, although it is worth pointing out that on a per-capita basis they have more stations than Ottawa. Kingston is going to install 2 DC Fast Chargers and 25 dual level 2 AC chargers across the city.  This network will allow visitors and locals to charge in many handy locations.   There is a certain amount of “build it and then they will come” here, but the plan is sound and it will draw EVs to downtown which is under served today.  As visitors this is great for us, we have to charge in the West end today, well away from Queens, downtown and where our son lives.  Charging will be free at the Level 2 stations, the DC stations will be in the $10-15 range.

Kingston is also working on preparing the grid and having EV charging as an integral part of new builds for the City.

Target Area 3 – Support Municipal Employees Use of EVs

This target area is weaker than the other area, the City is planning on installing chargers for employees if there is demand.  For many Cities this is an area with real impact, hopefully Kingston will follow through on this.

Budget

Kingston’s initial capital investment in these programs is $796,000, representing 0.15% of the total 2018 budget.  If Ottawa was to allocate the same percentage we would be looking about $5,000,000.  Kingston is to be congratulated on their commitment, I will look to 2019 to see how their bus fleet electrification progresses.  Kingston spend about $82,000 per year supporting the operation of the chargers with cost reductions from fees reducing this over time.

As a Model for Other Municipalities

Using Kingston as a model is certainly valid for small-medium municipalities in Ontario.  The current provincial programs support the switch and similar sized cities could implement this strategy successfully.  Larger Cities can take much from the strategy, but it would need to be adapted to the larger organisation sizes involved.

Kingston is evidence that leadership and a relatively small budget commitment can go a long way to starting the process of reducing the GHG impact in a way that saves money.

 

Winter Driving in an e-Golf

We are in the midst of a cold snap here in Ottawa, colder than Mars according to the headlines.  The temperatures over the last week or two have been consistently very cold, with a few days not making it much above -20C.  We have had some snow and the roads have been challenging at times.  Electric Alice has behaved well, and here are some of our thoughts and observations.  We have only used the car in town at these temperatures so far, a longer trip will have to wait for another post.

Driving

We have installed good winter tyres, Nokian Hakkapeliitta R2s, They are great tyres and perform well in all the conditions we have had so far. The R2 is designed for low rolling resistance and scores very highly in tyre tests.  We have found that the R2s are noisier than the summer tyres, but overall the noise level is not much worse.

On slippery roads, the traction control works really well, no torque-steer at all with really only the light on the dash to tell you what is happening.  EVs generally have good traction control as the motor is far more responsive than a gas engine. Under hard braking, the ABS works well, just like any other VW.

Regenerative braking seems to work differently if the battery is cold.  In warmer weather, we see about 50kW of regen in B mode and 100kW under braking.  With low temps, the regen seems to be much reduced, perhaps less than half of normal operation.  This is similar to driving with the battery close to 100%.  I suspect that the battery is being protected from some high current events.

Creature Comforts

Volkswagen have clearly put a lot of effort into making the e-Golf comfortable in the winter.  The heater is very powerful, keeping the cabin warm in temps well below -20C.  There is a combination of heat pump and resistive heating, with a total power draw of about 6-7kW.  When the car is cold and you turn on the heated seats, heat front and rear windscreens, the power draw sits at about 7.8kW, a huge draw. Once the cabin is warm, this seems to cycle between 4.4 and 6 kW at -20C.

On the cold days I have been using the preheating function to take the edge off, it is nice to reach the car across the large and windy parking lot at work and settle into a warm car.  It is a shame you can’t turn the seat heaters on with the timer, but they come on in a few seconds.

Range Impact

All this warmth has a big impact on range guess-o-meter (GoM) and the real range. We keep our car in our garage that sits at a few degrees above zero if it is -20C outside.  We see about 110 km on the GoM before we turn the car on, about 130 km when the car is on.

Just turned on in the garage

Driving around town is about the worst thing you can do for range in the winter, the draw of the heating systems does not drop as you sit in traffic, getting out of the car to run an errand lets the cabin cool down and you have to put a bunch of heat back in.  On Saturday we did about 75km in -22C temps with about 6 stops over the day, we got home with about 25km range, so 100km is a realistic range in these conditions. This was the only time I have experienced a touch of range anxiety in town, but when I thought it through, I know where the DC fast chargers are and we were never more than a few km from one so if we had gotten close to running out of electrons, I could have picked some up easily.

We use about 30kWh/100km at -20C, compared with about 16 kWh/100km in warmer weather. A lot of this is the heating but there is also some loss of range due to increases in rolling resistance due to road conditions and hysteresis of the cold tyres. Air resistance is higher in cold temperatures too.  Fossil cars are also much less efficient in cold weather, perhaps 30% or so.

The reduction of range really brings into focus the benefits of workplace charging.  If you have a longer commute, plugging in at work, with the option to preheat your car without using the battery is a big help.  Thankfully, the e-Golf does not have to be plugged-in to use the preheat function.

When we bought Alice, we did so on the assumption that we would rent a car for all long trips.  In warmer weather we have not found that necessary, but I think we would have to think hard about a long trip in the depth of winter.  On the other hand, in town, even in a cold snap we have a car that is warm, comfortable, easy and safe to drive on difficult roads and I have not had to stand in -20C for 5 minutes to fuel up.

 

Christmas Holiday in Europe

We spent the last couple of weeks visiting Germany and the UK to see friends and family.  Though this was not an EV related trip we did see some things of note.

In Germany we saw an e-Golf in a dealer showroom. We drove by on a Sunday so we could not check to see if it was sold or not, but it might point to better availability in Germany than we have here in Canada.  We saw a few EVs on the road, Teslas mainly.

We headed to the UK for Christmas with family.  We picked up my sister from Liverpool airport and on the way to my parent’s place we stopped at Burtonwood Motorway Services on the M62 between Liverpool and Manchester.  As with most services in the UK, Ecotricity has installed a pair of L3 chargers supporting CHAdeMO and CCS, with a side of Type 2 AC.  The standards as Renault has high power Type 2 charging on the Zoe, rather than the CHAdeMO of the Leaf, despite Renault owning a controlling interest in Nissan.  There is great video on how the Ecotricity chargers work here.  There is a new 8 bay Supercharger on the other side of the car park that is about to be commissioned.  Installing charging at service areas is an obvious and needed addition, sadly, despite all the service areas in Ontario being owned by the province, there has been no progress on this here.

The UK has fines for ICEing, which is great.  Quebec now has similar rules.

We saw our first electric bus in Manchester. Manchester has a free shuttle bus service in the city centre with at least 3 pure electric buses joining a fleet of diesel-electric hybrids in 2014.

Electric buses make so much sense, Shenzhen has a 16,000 strong fleet of electric buses, more cities should move away from diesel.

In addition to free electric shuttles, Manchester also benefits from the Brompton hire system.  For £3.50 a day you can rent a Brompton, which is a great deal. This dock is at Manchester Piccadilly rail station.  The Bromptons act as the last mile solution.

Seeing integrated transportation options like this in the UK, which has a far more complicated model with many private companies and funding agency shows how far behind we are in Ontario with a much simpler political landscape.

We rounded out our trip to Manchester to two monuments to Vimto, ruiner of many carpets and to Alan Turing, founding father of Computer Science.